First of all: I have been really wrong on major issues in the past, and it took me years to understand the other side. This time I may be completely wrong, so take all with a grain of salt. I’m exploring and learning the subject.
Civil war is the better of two bad choices. The idea is that nobody ever has to fire a gun, it’s a passive force to prevent dictators trying to take over a region.
Let’s do a mathematical calculation to have an approximate understanding of the problem. Timescale: 100 years.
We can assume that at least in 70% of nations with no guns somebody from the inside or outside will attempt to take over the country and take away their freedom. Remember that the British alone invaded 9 out of 10 countries in the world, and this is just one factor out of dozens affecting freedom. So 70% is probably a low estimate, but I will explore an even lower estimate.
We can also assume that only 20% of regions will suffer the same fate in areas where gun ownership is high. This is because the gun ownership pushes the game theory equilibrium towards significantly less attempts. Who in their right mind would try to take over the US, where virtually every single citizen will come at you with a gun if you threaten their freedom? Very few will attempt.
We also assume that if the population has guns they have a much higher chance of preserving their freedom: 50% chance vs 15% chance if they are unarmed.
I think the above assumptions are pretty consistent with our recent world history. But I realize it’s all just estimates.
Policy A - Firearms not allowed or severely restricted, thus the scores are higher on all cases because there are less firearm related issues.
- Dictator tries to take over and succeeds: -2. Chance of happening: 60%. Score: -1.2.
- Dictator tries to take over and doesn’t succeed: 3. Chance of happening: 10%. Score: +0.3.
- Nobody tries to take over: 3. Chance: 30%. Score: +0.9.
Total score for policy A: 0 (zero).
Policy B - Firearms allowed or not severely restricted. In this scenario the scores are lower for all options, because we have firearm related issues.
- Dictator tries to take over and succeeds: -3. Chance of happening: 10%. Score: -0.3.
- Dictator tries to take over and doesn’t succeed: 2. Chance of happening: 10%. Score: +0.2.
- Nobody tries to take over: 2. Chance: 80%. Score: +1.6
Total score for policy B: +1.5.
Policy A is risky business, because while 40% of the time it produces the optimal wellbeing of +3, there is a high chance of a severely negative outcome, from which the country can only recover once the corrupt system collapses from within, which typically takes generations. The average wellbeing thus being: 0.
Policy B is winner. With this policy we can preserve freedom for most of the time with wellbeing at +2, and achieve an ‘acceptable’ level of average wellbeing at +1.5, but it’s far from the optimal +3, because of ongoing firearm related issues.
What if the initial assumptions are incorrect? Let’s decrease the chances of a takeover attempt in policy A significantly by 50%.
Numbers will change as follows:
A1. 40%: -0.8
A2. 6.6%: +0.2
A3. 53.4%: +1.6
Total : +1.
Even with these numbers Policy A (+1) is losing against B (+1.5).
Having said that, I still want A to happen, but we need to somehow solve the issue of a potential rogue force taking over regions. Until then B seems more reasonable if we accept the calculation above.
This is hard to accept when you were lucky enough to have enjoyed a long standing good streak of nobody trying to take your freedom. But for those who came from recent conflicts and live under dictatorships right now, the above conclusion is pretty obvious.
Currently only 4 billion people out of 7 live in a democracy. And there are only a handful of nations who enjoyed uninterrupted freedom in the last 100 years. The USA is among those few.