Software for designing and building a cookbook

And nor should they! Who wants a below average professional in any field? The bar should be set a lot higher than it is now.

Perhaps you are correct, in that, the tech itself will weed out the amateur wannabes. Although the future looks bleak now, as it did when DTP became a thing. In the end companies realised that, although it seemed cheaper to get the Secretary to create corporate communications in MS Publisher, it simply didn’t work. I think the same will happen here in the end. Cheapskate clients will always go for the cheap option, but clients who value their businesses, know that the DIY approach doesn’t cut it.

I think you may correct that ultimately, the tech that is undermining the industry will take over the low end, but probably will not – in our lifetimes, at least – take over the top end. It is not about technical skills ( though they are, of course, necessary). It is about brains, knowledge and most importantly, ideas. Not something Canva, et al, can help with.

Anyone can learn to play three chords on a guitar, but it takes a whole lot more to be musically innovative.

Considering the majority would be included in average or below average, that would be a lot of positions taken over by software, and it’s probably already starting to happen to a certain extent (low-end stuff).
The new bar would be set higher, but I’m not sure how many designers would follow through that higher bar. Although you could argue that as tools get better for DIY purposes, tools would also get better for pros to do an even better and more meticulous job.

Yeah, but don’t the ‘cheapstake’ clients become the majority when you look at smaller projects and stuff like logos or business cards?
Once the line gets more blurry between DIY and pro work, I wonder how many people will keep hiring. Consultation might be a big selling point in the future when it comes to hiring someone (knowledge and ideas, as you say).

That is a problem.

Medium-to-larger businesses will still need in-house marketing departments with designers to make decisions, even if using an equivalent to Canva or AI technology is part of the workflow.

Those same companies will still want to budget for marketing, which often involves everything from initial research, surveys, focus groups, A-B testing, data analysis, etc., before making important marketing or public relations decisions. As part of this process, these same companies would be foolish to turn over important design decisions to an administrative assistant using Canva.

In these types of situations, I’m not too concerned about the future of the field. Changes will occur, but that’s always been the case.

The problem I see over the next few years is that smaller businesses will increasingly choose viable do-it-yourself approaches. For example, a local auto repair shop sending out mailers to their customers will likely be quite satisfied by what they can get through inexpensive automated services. Similarly, most people don’t hire architects to design their houses or hire tailors to customize their clothing.

Even the larger companies I mentioned will turn to these options for less important in-house projects that don’t warrant the attention of a larger campaign or project.

What makes this trend particularly problematic is that over the past 20 years, graphic design has become a cool college major for naive students who think a career in design will be fun and exciting. Here in the U.S., for-profit schools have taken advantage of this by graduating hordes of new designers who will increasingly be unable to find work.

The glut of new designers, combined with cheap overseas competition, and Canva-like services are also driving down wages and fees by means of simple supply and demand.

Eventually, the imbalances will right themselves in some way or another, but the next ten or 20 years will be rough.

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