Details the news in here : Adobe Struggles To Assure Investors That It Can Thrive in AI Era
Any Feedback or thoughts ?
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I think it says a lot about what “investors” think of Creatives like graphic designers.
Get out. Now.
On my side of things though, maybe AI can build files that will print.
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I’ve been thinking about the same issues concerning Adobe. Currently, Adobe is the clear leader in the digital creative field. However, I’ve recently started to question whether a fundamental impending market shift is threatening Adobe’s core creative software business model.
For example, Canva is expanding rapidly. They are expected to generate over $3 billion this year, which is approximately one-third of what Adobe earns from its Creative Cloud products (I needed to look up those numbers). However, Canva is growing at a much faster pace than Adobe, despite both companies continuing to expand.
Canva is relatively new, and its growth rate will slow as its market share increases, which is typical. However, it’s concerning that Canva has a fundamentally different business model from Adobe, which might be a more successful approach moving forward. Additionally, Canva’s model can greatly benefit from AI, whereas AI use in Adobe’s Creative Cloud is more like an afterthought.
It’s also worth remembering that a large part of Adobe’s revenue comes from its non-creative business products that generate around $5 billion per year, as opposed to the $12–13 billion from Creative Cloud software (again, I needed to look up those figures). These business products are particularly susceptible to major revisions that incorporate AI, so Adobe appears to be investing heavily in it. However, at its core, Adobe isn’t an AI development company, and when everything shakes out, I’m unsure if Adobe will emerge as the market leader in these areas.
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Here’s my take on it it’ll take more than a Slashdot post and a Citigroup note to write Adobe off, but I’ll throw my hat in the ring.
Adobe’s definitely under pressure probably the biggest challenge it’s faced but “destined for disruption” isn’t a sure thing.
The risk is real, Adobe’s whole business is built around professional creative workflows, and those are being challenged by AI-first tools and simpler options. The barrier to entry is dropping fast, Canva and the big AI models make it easy and cheap to create “good enough” content. Investors worry that subscription fatigue and cheaper alternatives could start eating into Adobe’s pricing power.
That said, Adobe still has huge advantages. Its massive user base means deep integrations and an ecosystem that’s hard to replace overnight. It’s not ignoring AI either, Firefly and its other features show it’s adapting. And for a lot of professionals, “quick content” isn’t enough they need versioning, brand control, plugin support, large file handling, things Adobe still does best.
Will it always stay that way? Maybe not. If the lower-end tools keep improving and AI moves from being a “tool” to a full creative platform, Adobe could get squeezed. The real question is whether Adobe can keep growing subscriptions or boost margins through AI in what’s quickly becoming a more commoditised space.
Personally, I’d keep an eye on it but not panic. Designers should stay flexible and explore tools like Canva or Runway without assuming “Adobe forever.” Investors should watch how Adobe balances innovation with pricing.
And honestly, there’s plenty of room for both markets the professionals and the “armchair designers.” Canva has nailed the quick-turnaround crowd, and that’s fine. Let them handle the 2 a.m. promo requests sooner or later, even they’ll be swamped too.
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Well for me it doesn’t matter about Adobe software as I always looks for alternatives ! and in any case we will finds our own way so LET’S MAKE GrAPHICS DESIGN GREAT AGAIN ! LOL
This inspired me to ask for user numbers (which can be AI hallucinations).
With the help of the huge user base at Canva Affinity could become a problem for Adobe in around 2030.
https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtMi1jb3B5_ca55bee1-a8b5-4b18-b1cb-e5847123883c
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Totally I agree with you specially if they don’t arrange those prices and keep up then something really not good is going to happen.
I honestly do not see it as a problem. Adobe has definitely lost some casual users to Canva, the sort of people who just want to knock something together quickly and maybe a few pros and hobbyists to boot.
But the enterprise world has not moved afaik. Agencies, printers, publishers, production houses, they are still on Adobe because the workflows are built around it. That’s gonna be hard to break.
In my case I use Adobe because that is simply what the job requires. I am not emotionally attached to it. If someone came along tomorrow and said we are switching to Affinity then fine, I would switch. I have already lived through PageMaker, Quark, Corel and a few others. Software is just a tool.
The thing with Creative Cloud is that it is not just InDesign and Illustrator and Photoshop. There is a whole ecosystem that connects together. Bridge, Acrobat, Libraries, Fonts, Stock, linked colour management, automation, scripting. All those little things that make life easier when you are doing actual production work.
Affinity looks tidy and I respect what they are doing, but for me it is basically three core apps. It does not fit my workflow as smoothly and from what I see it does not replace the wider suite of supporting tools I rely on every day. For someone doing lighter work it might be perfect, but it is not built for what I do in a production environment.
And on the AI side, there are plenty of free or cheap AI tools already. So I do not really buy the idea that people will suddenly sign up to Canva Pro just for AI features. Giving software away to lure people into using your AI feels like a strange approach. It might work for a hobby crowd, but it does not necessarily translate to professional work where reliability and integration matter more than novelty.
So for me it is simple. Adobe fits the workflow, the industry still expects it, and I use what gets the job done. If the day comes when something else does it better, I will use that instead. Tools are tools. The work is the work.
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I think the same like you, but tools are tools and software is software!. Just use and play what are your preferred tools and if you find something that does the job better then use it too !. Being opening for use what ever wants to use and be respectful what other use as a Graphic Design Tools!. Best way to do things is working all together no matter with tools do you use to make your graphic design as the best job !
@mluxgd’s original post was about investors getting fidgety about Adobe’s stock prices. Investors are concerned with the likelihood of company growth, which for Adobe has been exponential since the 1980s. One could have easily become very wealthy by investing in Adobe and holding onto it for the past 40 years.
Although Adobe is a solid company for all the reasons @Smurf2 mentioned, its future growth doesn’t look as rosy as its past, and its stock prices have been trending downward for the last three years, as the graph below shows.
As professional graphic designers, we tend to focus on Adobe’s Creative Cloud, specifically on Photoshop, Illustrator, InDesign, and Acrobat. Adobe has had a lock on professional designers for decades. Even serious amateurs used Adobe software, which fueled Creative Cloud growth for the past several years.
Creative Cloud’s market share among professional designers is unlikely to change significantly in the near term. However, Canva is rapidly capturing the non-professional and business user crowds, stalling Creative Cloud’s market growth. Canva’s acquisition and integration of Affinity show that Canva is also targeting professional users. The information that @Joe uncovered is especially interesting.
To one extent or another, all the remaining Creative Cloud apps have serious competitors or are low-revenue niche apps.
None of this means that Adobe’s Creative Cloud won’t remain the dominant player for graphic designers, but it does indicate that it’s unlikely to grow at anywhere near the rate that it has in the past, which is contributing to its stock decline.
The AI thing is more complicated, and I could ramble on for twice as long on that. In short, investors are concerned that Adobe isn’t moving fast enough or that its software can’t integrate AI effectively without a significant overhaul. I think that concern is exaggerated. I also believe interest in AI has reached bubble status that’s likely to pop, similar to the Internet bubble of the early 2000s.
As for Adobe’s business software, which we designers generally don’t use, investor concerns are similar regarding AI and their feelings that the future of the company needs in those areas depend heavily on AI solutions, which again, Adobe might or might not be pursuing rapidly enough, which causes uncertainty about future growth, which, once again, is reflected in stock price jitters.
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I’m not sure those were ever really Adobe’s customers to begin with. It’s like the old days of people using Publisher or PowerPoint to make flyers, not the same crowd buying Creative Cloud.
There’s always been free creative software, Inkscape, GIMP, Scribus, you name it, so this isn’t really new territory. If anything, tools like Canva might end up putting more pressure on those open-source apps than on Adobe. It’s less of a threat to the top end and more of a shake-up for the lower end of the market.
Canva’s crowd (I assume) is mostly small businesses (self-employed) etc, marketers - and casual creators who just need quick, “good enough” content. They don’t design often enough to justify Adobe’s full subscription and that’s fine, Canva fills that niche brilliantly.
Adobe’s still serving a different audience. Professionals rely on versioning, brand control, file handling, and deep integration across apps. And big brands need to send assets between agencies worldwide, that ecosystem still runs on Adobe.
I just don’t see major brands shifting the entire system anytime soon. Moving away from Adobe would create chaos with file compatibility, workflows, and long-standing infrastructure. Something drastic would have to change for that to happen.
And let’s be honest, many designers are already set in their ways when it comes to Ecosystems. It’s the same mindset as “must have the best MacBook Pro” - they don’t mind paying 3k for a laptop - but bemoan €60 a month for software that funds their lifestyle - yet they’re fully invested in Adobe, and that’s still the industry keyword when it comes to hiring and skills.
That said, Canva’s rise does slow Adobe’s growth at the lower end. The easy-entry part of the market is gone, and investors see that as a ceiling which explains some of the current stock jitters.
On the plus side, Canva and similar tools are expanding the creative ecosystem. Some of those users will eventually outgrow the quick-content phase and step up to Adobe’s professional tools.
It might actually see Adobe slowing for a few years, until these people need to get jobs, or work in systems that require the Adobe workflow, then they’ll have to move on to Adobe.
Maybe this even nudges Adobe to rethink its pricing or offer lighter entry points, which could reduce piracy and keep new creators in the fold.
In the end, Canva and Adobe aren’t really at war they just serve different needs. The trick for Adobe is staying essential and also to those making fast social content.
I’m sure some solo creatives will make the jump to Canva or Affinity, and fair play it’s hard to ignore the convenience. But in the professional world, high-end clients and agencies still expect files in Adobe formats. That’s the currency of the industry, and it’s not changing anytime soon. As long as teams need to pass artwork back and forth seamlessly, Adobe’s grip on that workflow will stay strong for better or worse.
I agree, but here are a few more thoughts.
Yes, but as you stated, that’s not a growth area, which is what investors are concerned with. Creative Cloud has hit the ceiling in that market and plateaued. Growth is doable on the lower end, but Canva has the initiative there with its inexpensive and easy-to-use online software.
You mentioned that, of course, and it’s a primary reason their stock prices are sinking. I’m restating this because it’s the heart of my concerns about Adobe — they have few options available that will help them capture a larger market share for their creative software. They’ve been trying for several years without any big successes.
For those Canva users who outgrow Canva, the logical move would be to download and use Affinity, as it will increasingly integrate directly into what they know about Canva. I’m sure some will migrate to Creative Cloud, but that’s a significant leap from one ecosystem to another when Affinity is a much easier and capable next step.
So far, we’ve concentrated on print, when the larger growth areas lie elsewhere. Some of Adobe’s creative software, such as Premiere and After Effects, have done well and will likely continue to do so, but Adobe has largely been an also-ran in the digital arena, despite its efforts.
Yes, I suspect that will remain the case in the short term (and possibly further) for print. However, if the business undergoes a fundamental transformation that’s driven by the lower end and AI, current ways of doing things will need to make room for something new, the industry will adapt, as it’s always done.
I don’t think Adobe is in danger as a company. Its user base is solid, its software is unparalleled, and its diversity of products is huge. But it’s a mature company, not one poised for growth, which causes its stock prices to fall. They’re certainly not going to grow at the exponential rate of the past unless they have something truly groundbreaking in the works.
I think we probably agree that Adobe has reached saturation with users. The market they dominate is the market they are going to keep.
And Canva and Affinity will also hit the same point in their own spaces. At some stage the dust settles and each tool finds its level.
The thing is, the lower end of the market moves fast because the work is simpler. Canva will grow there because it is easy and friendly.
Affinity will grow with people who want a bit more control.
Fair play. But the professional end works differently. The work is passed between studios, printers, agencies and clients and that means the workflow matters more than the price or the UI.
Right now Adobe is the glue that holds that end of the industry together. Colour management, prepress, linked assets, scripting, PDF standards, all the boring nuts and bolts that allow files to move without falling apart. That is the part Canva and Affinity still do not really cover. Not yet.
And yes, some Canva users will outgrow Canva. They will want more control and more precision. Maybe some will try Affinity first because the jump feels smaller. But when they step into environments where printers and agencies and production teams are involved, the industry standard tends to pull them upwards into Adobe anyway. Not because Adobe is trendy or exciting, but because that is the ecosystem the workflows are built on.
So growth on the hobby and solo side will keep shifting around, sure. But the professional backbone is slower to change because the stakes are higher. That is where the real work happens. And until something else can handle that work end to end without headaches, Adobe is still the tool that makes most sense.
If that changes one day, I’ll change with it. The tool is never the point. The work is the point.
I agree with the points made about Canva, but I have to disagree about Affinity. I have no trouble maintaining my strict Adobe color management regime with Affinity. Prepress analytics, linked vs. embedded files and images, and PDF standards are all covered and followed pretty well.
Scripting is coming soon. Affinity does lack a color separation preview and a tool to analyze PDF files after exporting, though.
Therefore, I still use a perpetual license of Acrobat Pro. Preflights receive better reports than InDesign PDFs. This is from the designer’s perspective, not the printer’s.
Of course, Adobe’s tools are more feature-rich and also cover more than graphic design, but I would say Affinity covers most graphic design use cases and does many of them better and faster in terms of workflow.
Well no arguments there because I haven’t used Affinity in a full production environment myself. So I’ll take you at your word on the colour management side. I’m sure it holds up fine when the person driving it knows what they’re doing.
Where I do run into headaches is with Canva outputs. I’ve had more than a few jobs where the PDF arrives looking grand at first glance, then the moment you prep it for print you realise half of it needs to be rebuilt. That’s not Canva’s fault as such, that’s just what happens when people use tools before they really understand the process.
And to be fair, you get that with Adobe users too. But the entry to market is so easy now that the number of files needing rescue has gone up a lot.
So for me, the issue is not Canva or Affinity or Adobe. It’s the skill level of whoever is sending the file. If someone knows what they’re doing, I don’t care what they used. Work is work and the result is what matters. It’s just that the reality is, the simpler the tool is to get into, the more chances there are that the fundamentals get skipped.
That’s where the problems usually start. Not with the software. With the hands on the keyboard.
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QFT!
What most of you are overlooking is that Canva also has a print division. Not only can you design your pretty crap, you can get it printed too, without having to deal with the high-falootin’ requirements of professional print vendors. My take on that is have at it. 
Please! I don’t need that crap.
Adobe fell down several years ago when they dumped their Print Partners program, though. Even their software sometimes forgets that printers actually have to output their stuff too.
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We call that PEBKAC (problem exists between keyboard and chair).
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We call it, “Check part ID-10-T.”
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